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FIRST ANALYSIS:
ELECTIONS IMPROVE IMMIGRATION-REDUCTION CHANCES IN CONGRESS

Roy Beck,
President,
NumbersUSA
Nov. 3, 2004

Good morning,

Overall, we can find good news for the immigration-reduction cause in results from yesterday's elections.

Many of you have a number of other reasons to be disappointed by election results over the night, as well as reasons for satisfaction. Here at NumbersUSA, we concern ourselves only with how the elections changed opportunities for enacting dramatic reductions in legal and illegal immigration.

These elections produced mixed results for us. They are adding some very hopeful additions to Congress but also a few new Members who are likely to do worse than their predecessors. Both major Presidential candidates were so bad on immigration issues that we could give no opinion about whether one would be better than the other.

Overall, though, our chances for immigration reductions in the next Congress appear significantly improved by the results of yesterday's elections.

  1. DASCHLE & FROST
    .......Stunning Defeats for 2 Big Leaders Hostile to Immigration Reduction

    The Senate's top Democratic leader, Tom Daschle, and one of the House's top fund-raisers for Democrats, Martin Frost, were thrown out of Congress by the voters Tuesday.

    Both Sen. Daschle (South Dakota) and Rep. Frost (Dallas) have been big promoters of massive amnesties for illegal aliens.

    Their downfall should provide a powerful cautionary tale to those at the top of the Party who have insisted on opposing the majority opinion of Democratic voters (as well as Independents and Republicans) who oppose amnesties and prefer immigration reductions.

    A coalition of immigration-reduction groups ran major TV and radio ad campaigns about Daschle's and Frost's pro-amnesty records (along with similar ads exposing some major Republicans, as well). The ads asked constituents to contact these Members of Congress and urge them to withdraw their names from amnesty bills.

    These ads were the first issue ads that ran in Daschle's and Frost's areas last spring.

    The two men did not withdraw their support for amnesties.

    The ad campaigns continued.

    Both Daschle and Frost hired major national law firms to try to intimidate TV and radio stations to pull the immigration ads. Both men also conducted disinformation campaigns that attempted to claim that efforts to combat illegal immigration are racist, anti-Catholic and undemocratic.

    Instead of speaking to the wisdom of their open-borders stances, they tried to deflect attention through smear campaigns against groups seeking immigration reductions.

    And both Daschle and Frost repeatedly tried to convince the public that giving illegal aliens a pathway to U.S. citizenship is not an amnesty.

    Their constituents chose to give both of them a pathway to U.S. civilianship.

    For decades, no Majority or Minority Leader of the Senate has lost an election anywhere in the country. But Sen. Daschle managed to do that, with his continuous radical support for illegal aliens contributing to the South Dakota voters' decision that he was out of touch and needed to be replaced.

    NumbersUSA has for years mobilized South Dakota citizens and also Democrats from across the country to try to persuade Sen. Daschle and his staff that his leadership on immigration was harmful to him, to his Party and to the American people.

    Thanks to all of you who for so long have communicated to the Daschle and Frost staffs.

    Rep. Frost has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to try to help Democrats win enough seats to regain control of the House of Representatives. But he never understood that one of the keys to making Democratic candidates much more attractive to the general electorate was to protect constituents' quality of life from massive immigration.

    Both Frost and Daschle were beaten by men with far better immigration records.

  2. CHAIRMAN HOSTETTLER WINS
    .....He is our best immigration-reduction legislative champion

    Rep. Hostettler of Indiana took over chairmanship of the House immigration subcommittee two years ago when the House Republican leadership needed somebody other than open-borders advocate Chris Cannon (R-UT) to lead House immigration efforts.

    Hostettler has performed with a boldness for immigration reduction that is unsurpassed. He pushed through committees this fall and elimination of the visa lottery, for example.

    He is so very aggressive for our cause that one might think he hails from a safe district. In fact, his district is evenly divided between the Parties. In five previous wins, he has never been elected with more than 53% of the vote.

    The open-borders lobbies targeted Hostettler as one of the most vulnerable incumbents.

    But he cranked out another 53% win.

  3. TANCREDO LANDSLIDES
    ......Most outspoken reduction champion fends off big business attempt to unseat him

    Major big business champions of cheap foreign labor poured large amounts of money into helping a Republican run as the Democratic candidate to try to unseat Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO).

    His outspoken opposition to Pres. Bush's various amnesty and guest worker proposals have also brought widespread rumors that some part of the national Republican Party might target Tancredo in the 2006 GOP primary -- but only if he failed to win with 60% or more of the vote in this election.

    Despite persistent and overwhelming oppostion from Denver newspapers and big money interests, Tancredo pulled out a landslide 60% victory in his fourth election.

    Tancredo will return to Congress with his reputation even more substantial as he continues to lead the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus.

  4. ARIZONA ANTI-ILLEGAL PASSES
    .....A national signal of voter frustration

    Prop. 200 passed overwhelmingly, although we can't seem to get a good count at this time to report to you.

    Nearly all of the top political leaders of both parties, the state's newspapers and business, religious and union communities vigorously opposed this ballot measure, while spending more than a million dollars to defeat it.

    But Arizonans are fed up with the tide of illegal immigration and liked the proposition's requirement that state officials no longer provide non-emergency services to illegal aliens and that they ensure that illegal aliens don't vote.

    The Wall Street Journal and other open-borders advocates set up the Arizona vote as a kind of bellweather for the nation and warned of dire consequences if Prop. 200 passed.

    Both supporters and opponents said passage of Prop. 200 would spur similar citizen efforts in other states and put more pressure on Congress to get tougher on illegal immigration.

  5. COMING SOON
    .....Tally sheet of changes in Senate and House

    I'll shoot this Alert out to you now and send you a fruther report on the individual elections later this morning.

    The bottom line in the Senate, though, is that it appears that nine Senators will be leaving by retirement or defeat. They have a combined average immigration-reduction grade of a C-minus.

    The six replacements, who have records from Congress already, have an average grade of B.

    The three replacements who do not have a previous record are taking the seats of Senators who have F and D-plus grades.

    So the situation in the Senate should be somewhat if not significantly improved.

-- ROY


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